Daily Market Outlook for 22.10.2013

EURUSD

 

The Euro trades in widened consolidative range, with downside being for now protected by hourly 55DMA / 4-hour 20DMA at 1.3650, also Fibonacci 23.6% of 1.3472/1.3702 ascend and previous high of 03/10. Hourly studies are neutral to negative, with further sideways mode seen while 1.3650 holds. On the other side, 4-hour indicators are descending from overextended territory that keeps the downside vulnerable of further corrective easing. Below 1.3650 handle, Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.3614, will come next, along with 1.3600, high of 14/10 and 4-hour 55DMA, levels seen as ideal reversal point, ahead of fresh attack at short-term target at 1.3710, with 1.3800, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 1.3103, seen as next target. Any break below 1.3600 would delay bulls for further consolidation, with pivotal near-term support lying at 1.3470 zone.

Res: 1.3687; 1.3702; 1.3710; 1.3750

Sup: 1.3650; 1.3614; 1.3600; 1.3587

 

EURJPY

 

The pair continues to trend higher and holds steady above 134.00 handle. Bulls look for test of 134.70, the last obstacle en-route towards near-term target at 134.93, 19/09 peak. Near-term studies maintain positive tone, as larger picture bulls look for completion of short-term corrective pullback from 134.93 to 131.12, with break here to extend the third wave off 132.62 higher low and focus 135.19, Fibonacci 100% expansion. Initial supports lay at 134.17/00, ahead of last Friday’s correction low at 133.59, also near mid- point of entire rally that should keep the downside protected for now.

Res: 134.70; 134.93; 135.00; 135.19

Sup: 134.17; 134.00; 133.59; 133.31

 

GBPUSD

 

Cable moves lower after losing initial support at 1.6140, with hourly studies turning negative, as the price heads towards psychological 1.6100 support, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5892/1.6223 rally. Indicators on 4-hour chart slide from overbought territory and support the idea of further corrective easing that would be triggered on a break below 1.6100 handle. Next significant level stands at 1.6075, 50% retracement and 4-hour 55DMA, below which, risk of lower top at 1.6223 would increase, with break below near-term base and pivotal point at 1.5900 zone, required to activate negative scenario and allow for stronger pullback. Reversal above 1.6000, psychological and trendline support, would keep larger bulls intact for renewed attempt towards 1.6223 and key 1.6259 resistance.

Res: 1.6138; 1.6177; 1.6200; 1.6223

Sup: 1.6114; 1.6100; 1.6058; 1.6018

 

USDJPY

 

The pair remains supported and heads higher, as break above initial 98.14 barrier extended recovery rally from 97.54 low. Positively aligned hourly structure supports further upside with break above 98.50 barrier, near 61.8% of 98.99/97.54 downleg, required to confirm bullish resumption and focus key near-term hurdle at 98.99, 17/10 peak. On the other side, weak 4-hour studies would keep the downside risk in play, while below 98.50, with loss of initial 98.00 support, seen as spark for further weakness towards 97.54, 18/10 low. Loss of the latter to bring bears fully in play and confirm lower top formation.

Res: 98.44; 98.65; 98.99; 99.65

Sup: 98.14; 98.00; 97.73; 97.54

 

AUDUSD

 

The pair remains supported as upside acceleration through psychological 0.9600 barrier, cleared near-term target at 0.9664, 14/06 peak and Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low. Psychological 0.9700 barrier and 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descends, come in near-term focus, however, rally is likely to be preceded by current consolidative action, with 0.9600 support expected to hold.  Extension of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low, could travel to 0.9905/18, Fibonacci 100% expansion and 61.8% retracement of 1.0581/0.8846, once 0.9700/14 barriers are cleared. Near-term studies are positive, however, 4-hour indicators moving from overbought territory, favor further consolidation. Only break below 0.9600 handle would delay and open next significant support at 0.9526, previous peak and 38.2% retracement of 0.9280/0.9678 rally.

Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9714; 0.9770

Sup: 0.9641; 0.9600; 0.9546; 0.9526

 

AUDNZD

 

The cross maintains positive tone, as yesterday’s fresh strength through psychological 1.1400 barrier, tested near-term target and pivotal point at 1.1436, 10/10 peak. Break here is required to daily cup and holder pattern and resume recovery rally from 1.1200 base, for test of next targets at 1.1482, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1655/1.1203 and psychological 1.1500 barrier. Near-term studies hold positive tone and are supportive for the upside scenario, with 1.1400/1.1385 support zone expected to contain dips.

Res: 1.1439; 1.1482; 1.1500; 1.1534

Sup: 1.1400; 1.1385; 1.1358; 1.1300

 

XAUUSD

 

Spot Gold trades in the near-term consolidative mode, holding within narrow range, off important 1329 barrier. Hourly indicators are in the neutral territory, while 4-hour studies are positively aligned and favor further extension of recovery rally from fresh low at 1251, with daily Kijun-sen line, protecting the downside for now. Break above Friday’s high and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1374/1251 descend, to open 1345, 76.4% retracement and 1351, 30/09 peak. Bullish 20/55DMA’s crossover, reinforces psychological 1300 support and only break here would weaken near-term structure.

Res: 1320; 1329; 1337; 1345

Sup: 1311; 1300; 1289; 1274

 

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