Daily Market Outlook for 21.10.2013

EURUSD

 

The Euro ended week in the positive tone, closing just below psychological 1.37 barrier that was cracked last Friday. Annual high at 1.3710 remain in immediate focus, with break here to extend the third wave that commenced from 1.3103, 01/09 higher low and could travel to 1.3803, its 100% Fibonacci expansion and 1.3832, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of larger 1.4938/1.2042 bear-phase. Bulls remain in play in near-term technicals, however, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, as studies on 4-hour chart are overextended. Current consolidation floor at 1.3658, along with previous peak at 1.3645, offers initial support, ahead of 1.3614/1.3587, 50% / 61.8% of 1.3472/1.3702, the latter being reinforced by 55DMA and seen as ideal reversal point. Key near-term supports and breakpoints lay at 1.3472/50, 16/10 low / 20/08 peak and only break here would neutralize near-term bulls.

Res: 1.3702; 1.3710; 1.3750; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3658; 1.3645; 1.3614; 1.3587

 

EURJPY

 

The pair continues to trend higher after last Friday’s corrective pullback found footstep at 133.59. Regain of 134 handle and break above previous peak at 134.17, would open way towards 134.70, the last obstacle en-route towards near-term target at 134.93, 19/09 peak. Positive technicals on lower timeframes support the notion, as larger picture bulls remain firmly in play for eventual completion of short-term corrective pullback from 134.93 to 131.12, with break here to extend the third wave off 132.62 higher low and focus 135.19, Fibonacci 100% expansion. Last Friday’s low at 133.59 offers initial support, ahead of 133.31, 17/10 higher low, with stronger dips to be contained above 133.00 handle.

Res: 134.70; 134.93; 135.00; 135.19

Sup: 133.85; 133.59; 133.31; 133.00

 

GBPUSD

 

Cable consolidates fresh gains on Friday, when the price peaked at 1.6223 and corrective pullback being established above 1.6140, consolidative floor. However, downside risk persists, as hourly indicators head south and 4-hour conditions being overextended. This suggests further consolidative / corrective action that may precede eventual push towards near-term target at 1.6259, 01/10 high, with further easing to be ideally contained at 1.6100, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5892/1.6223 rally. Only break below 1.6058, 50% retracement and 55DMA, would neutralize immediate bulls. Daily studies remain positive, as the bull trendline holds, however, Friday’s Doji, suggests hesitation on approach to key near-term barrier at 1.6259.

Res: 1.6177; 1.6200; 1.6223; 1.6259

Sup: 1.6140; 1.6123; 1.6100; 1.6058

 

USDJPY

 

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, off fresh low at 97.54, with upside being capped at 98.14 for now. Prevailing negative tone on 4-hour chart, keeps the downside at risk, with fresh weakness through 97.54, also near 61.8% retracement of 96.55/98.99 upleg, to open way for further easing and expose 97.13/00, 76.4% retracement / round-figure support. Conversely, fresh bulls, built on hourly chart, may prolong consolidative phase and possibly shift near-term focus higher, in case price sustain break above 98.27/44, Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% retracement of 98.99/97.54 downleg.

Res: 98.14; 98.27; 98.44; 98.65

Sup: 97.91; 97.76; 97.54; 97.13

 

AUDUSD

 

The pair remains supported and continues to trend higher, as upside acceleration through psychological 0.9600 barrier, tested near-term target at 0.9664, 14/06 peak and Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low. Break here to open psychological 0.9700 barrier and 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descend, net targets.  Extension of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low, could travel to 0.9905/18, Fibonacci 100% expansion and 61.8% retracement of 1.0581/0.8846, once 0.9700/14 barriers are cleared. Near-term studies are positive, however, corrective easing is seen as likely near-term scenario, as 4-hour RSI is in overbought territory and studies are overextended. Immediate supports lay at 0.9641/00, with previous peak at 0.9526, also 38.2% retracement of 0.9280/0.9678 rally, expected to contain.

Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9714; 0.9770

Sup: 0.9641; 0.9600; 0.9546; 0.9526

 

AUDNZD

 

The cross returns to strength and attempts above 1.1394 high, after completing 1.1394/1.1358 near-term corrective phase, where 55DMA contained pullback. Positive technicals favor extension above 1.1400 barrier, to open next strong resistances at 1.1429/36, 50% retracement of 1.1655/1.1203 / daily 55DMA and 10/10 near-term congestion top, to open way for further retracement of 1.1655/1.1203 downleg and sideline risk of re-visiting critical 1.1200 support. Further upside would look for 1.1482, 61.8% and psychological 1.1500 barrier, while 1.1300 platform holds.

Res: 1.1400; 1.1436; 1.1482; 1.1500

Sup: 1.1358; 1.1345; 1.1303; 1.1295

 

XAUUSD

 

Spot Gold trades in the near-term consolidative mode, holding within narrow range, off important 1329 barrier. Near-term studies are positively aligned and favor further extension of recovery rally from fresh low at 1251, as the price penetrates daily cloud base at 1320, with daily Kijun-sen line, protecting the downside for now. Break above Friday’s high and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1374/1251 descend, to open 1345, 76.4% retracement and 1351, 30/09 peak. Bullish 20/55DMA’s crossover, reinforces psychological 1300 support and only break here would weaken near-term structure.

Res: 1329; 1337; 1345; 1351

Sup: 1311; 1300; 1289; 1274

 

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