Daily Market Outlook for 18.10.2013

EURUSD

 

The Euro eventually broke above previous peak at 1.3645, on strong rally on Thursday, completing two-week 1.3645/1.3472 consolidative phase. Fresh gains approach psychological 1.3700 barrier and short-term target at 1.3710, 01/02 annual high, regain of which to fully retrace 1.3710/1.2744 corrective phase. Near-term technicals remain positive and favor final push to 1.3710, however, hesitation on approach would be seen on overbought conditions. Break above 1.3710 is expected to open psychological 1.3800 barrier and 1.3832, Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1.4938/1.2042, 2011 high / 2012 low descend. Previous high at 1.3645 offers initial support, ahead of 1.3600, 38.2% of 1.3472/1.3680 upleg / 4-hour 55DMA. Weekly close above 1.3645 to confirm bullish resumption of larger uptrend from 1.2754, 09/07 low.

Res: 1.3570; 1.3596; 1.3629; 1.3645

Sup: 1.3530; 1.3514; 1.3504; 1.3472

 

EURJPY

 

The pair resumed rally from 131.12, 08/10 higher low, after clearing near-term congestion top at 133.85 and cracked psychological 134.00 barrier, 24/09 high / Fibonacci 76.4% of 134.93/131.12 downleg. Positive near-term studies are supportive for final push towards 134.93, 19/09 peak, to complete 134.93/131.12, near-term corrective phase. Immediate support lies at 133.85, ahead of 133.60, 55DMA and higher platform at 133.30, where any stronger dips should be ideally contained. Larger picture bulls remain in play and keep the upside favored.

Res: 134.56; 134.93; 135.00; 135.50

Sup: 133.85; 133.60; 133.30; 133.00

 

GBPUSD

 

Cable returned to strength and skyrocketed on Thursday, retracing over 76.4% of 1.6259/1.5892 pullback. Break above pivotal 1.6123 barrier, triggered acceleration towards 1.6200 hurdle, confirming near-term base at 1.5900 zone, for eventual push towards key near-term barrier at 1.6259, 01/10 peak. Break here is required to complete corrective phase and spark fresh extension of larger uptrend from 1.4812 annual low, towards short-term targets at 1.6300 and 1.6380, 02/01 yearly high. Near-term technicals are bullish and keep the upside favored, however, overbought conditions may delay rally and allow for corrective action. Immediate supports lay at 1.6140/23, ahead of psychological 1.6100 support and 1.6075, 38.2% of 1.5892/1.6186, reinforced by rising 55DMA. 

Res: 1.6186; 1.6200; 1.6259; 1.6300

Sup: 1.6140; 1.6123; 1.6100; 1.6075

 

USDJPY

 

The pair came remains pressure, as fresh extension of near-term pullback from 99.00 upside rejection, lost 98.00 handle and cracked the next support at 97.77, Fibonacci 50% of 96.55/98.99 upleg. Negatively aligned near-term studies keep the downside risk in play, as the price trades within near-term consolidative range, with upside being limited by descending 55DMA at 98 zone for now. Further easing would look for 96.48, Fibonacci 61.8% and 97.13/00, 76.4% retracement / round figure. Conversely, sustained break above 98.00 barrier, would avert immediate downside risk, however, regain of minimum 99.35, mid-point of 98.99/0.97.73 slide is required to bring bulls back to play.

Res: 98.14; 98.35; 98.69; 99.00

Sup: 97.73; 97.48; 97.13; 97.00

 

AUDUSD

 

The pair remains supported and continues to trend higher, as upside acceleration through psychological 0.9600 barrier posted fresh high at 0.9646, en-route towards significant target at 0.9664, 14/06 peak and Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low, with psychological 0.9700 hurdle and 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descend, seen in extension. Freshly established bulls after completion of 0.9526/0.9280 corrective phase, favor further recovery that may be delayed in the near-term by overbought 4-hour studies. Initial support lies at 0.9600, ahead of previous peak at 0.9526 and 0.9500, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9280/0.9646 rally, reinforced by ascending 55DMA.

Res: 0.9646; 0.9664; 0.9700; 0.9714

Sup: 0.9600; 0.9526; 0.9500; 0.9485

 

AUDNZD

 

The pair remains entrenched within 1.1300/1.1384 consolidative range, as reversal from 1.1436 high, found support at 1.1300, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1207/1.1436 ascend. Immediate risk of re-visiting strong 1.1200 support is now sidelined, however lack of strength, seen on 4-hour studies, would keep 1.1300 support, as long as price holds below the range top. Such scenario would favor further consolidative action, while break above 1.1384/1.1400, is expected to open pivotal barriers at 1.1429/36, 50% retracement of larger 1.1655/1.1203 descend and 10/10 lower top.

Res: 1.1373; 1.1384; 1.1395; 1.1436

Sup: 1.1345; 1.1307; 1.1295; 1.1254

 

XAUUSD

 

Spot Gold bounced off 1270 higher platform, breaking above consolidation top at 1289 and psychological 1300 barrier, to regain levels above 1321, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1433/1251 descend. With near-term sentiment turning positive, more upside is seen favored in the near-term. However, pause in a rally, ahead of pivotal 1329 barrier and lower platform, could be expected, as lower timeframes technicals are approaching overbought territory. Corrective easing should find ground at 1300 zone, now reverted to support and reinforced by 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, to keep bulls in play for eventual push through 1329, above which to open 1337 and 1351 barriers. Conversely, loss of 1300 handle and previous strong barrier and consolidation top at 1289, would bring bears back in play.

Res: 1324; 1329; 1337/ 1343

Sup: 1313; 1300; 1289; 1274

 

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