Daily Market Outlook for 06.09.2013

EURUSD

 

The Euro trades in near-term consolidative mode, following Thursday’s repeated rejection above 1.32 and subsequent sharp fall to 1.3100, next downside target. The pair remains under pressure and keeps downside risk in play, with break below 1.3100, 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3450, expected to open layers of supports, starting from  1.3080, daily cloud base, then 1.3020, Fibonacci 61.8% and psychological 1.3000 support. Near-term studies are negative, however, oversold conditions see scope for extended consolidation, ahead of fresh weakness. Price action is for now capped by 200DMA at 1.3144, previous support, now reverted to resistance, with weekly close below here, to confirm top at 1.3450 and signal further easing.

Res: 1.3144; 1.3165; 1.3200; 1.3216

Sup: 1.3100; 1.3080; 1.3020; 1.3000

 

EURJPY

 

The cross trades in corrective mode after cracking 132.00 trendline resistance. Pullback from fresh high at 132.13, dipped below 131.00 handle, 38.2% of 129.28/132.13, increases risk of further easing towards strong 130.70/60 support zone, 50% retracement / higher platform / daily cloud base, as hourly studies turned negative. From the other side, 4-hour structure remains positive and keeps targets at 132.41/72 in play, with 131.60 seen as ideal reversal point. Violation of the latter would put near-term bulls on hold.

Res: 131.46; 131.80; 132.13; 132.41

Sup: 130.85; 130.63; 130.37; 130.00

 

GBPUSD

 

Cable holds positive near-term tone, with fresh high being posted at 1.5666, en-route towards 1.5700/16, next upside targets. Corrective pullback found footstep at 1.5572, above 50% retracement of 1.5461/1.5666, with regain of 1.5600 handle, seen as a signal for fresh attempt higher. Hourly indicators are emerging from negative territory, while positive 4-hour studies remain supportive. Correction low at 1.5572, offers initial support ahead of strong 1.55 zone, trendline support / 200DMA, while loss of higher platform at 1.5420 will be bearish.

Res: 1.5646; 1.5666; 1.5700; 1.5716

Sup: 1.5572; 1.5553; 1.5521; 1.5500

 

USDJPY

 

The pair eventually cracked 100 barrier and posted fresh high at 100.21, with subsequent easing seen as corrective. Dips were so far contained by 55DMA at 99.70 zone, with further correction not ruled out, as hourly studies are turning negative. Strong support zone at 99.15/00 should ideally contain and keep near-term bulls in play, as larger timeframes studies remain positive and see scope for extension towards 100.44/85, next targets.

Res: 100.00; 100.21; 100.44; 100.85

Sup: 99.68; 99.50; 99.15; 99.00

 

AUDUSD

 

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase off 0.9187, 04/09 fresh high, with reversal being contained by hourly 55DMA at 1.9114 so far. Overall picture remains positive and favors further upside for final push towards key near-term barriers at 0.9220/32, regain of which to confirm double-bottom formation at 0.8846/90 and opem way for stronger correction. Any extension, however, should not exceed 0.9040, 50% retracement of 0.8890/0.9187 ascend.

Res: 0.9187; 0.9200; 0.9220; 0.9232

Sup: 0.9114; 0.9100; 0.9068; 0.9040

 

AUDNZD

 

The cross came under increased pressure, as pullback from 1.1655 high of 04/09 broke below initial support at 1.1585, previous peak and threatens 1.1500 level, 38.2% of 1.1261/1.1685 ascend. Negative tone, established on the lower timeframes, sees the downside at risk, as loss of 1.1500 handle would risk extension to 1.1475 higher platform and full retracement of 1.1433/1.1655 upleg. Break below 1.1433/00 support zone would signal near-term top at 1.1655 and bring bears fully in play.

Res: 1.1541; 1.1575; 1.1600; 1.1623

Sup: 1.1500; 1.1475; 1.1433; 1.1400

 

XAUUSD

 

Spot Gold has lost ground after upside rejection at 1400 barrier accelerated on a break below higher platform at 1384, with fresh weakness extending to 1364 so far. Near-term studies remain firmly bearish, with downside risk seen towards 1350 breakpoint zone, previous high / trendline support, below which to confirm near-term top at 1433. Bears would be delayed by consolidative/corrective action, with immediate resistance laying at 1384, previous strong support, reinforced by 55DMA, while only regain of 1400 hurdle would provide relief.

Res: 1373; 1384; 1390; 1400

Sup: 1364; 1353; 1350; 1347

 

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