Daily Market Outlook for 05.09.2013

EURUSD

 

The single currency shows no significant changes compared to the previous sessions, with near-term price action being under pressure, as failure to sustain recovery above 1.32 handle, pushed the price lower. Hourly studies are losing traction, while 4-hour indicators hold in the negative territory that keeps the downside vulnerable. However, holding above 200DMA at 1.3140 zone, would keep hopes of fresh recovery attempt in play. Loss of the latter is expected to commence fresh leg lower and open 1.3100, 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3450 and 1.3050, 16/07 low. Immediate resistance lay at 1.3200/17, while only extension above 1.3250/60 zone would provide relief.

Res: 1.3172; 1.3200; 1.3236; 1.3266

Sup: 1.3156; 1.3136; 1.3100; 1.3066

 

EURJPY

 

The cross maintains positive near-term tone, as the price broke higher, following brief 131.46/130.63 congestion. Fresh high was posted at 131.80, just ahead of 132.00, trendline resistance, clearance of which to signal completion of bullish pennant and open next static resistances at 132.41/72, 23/08 / 24/07 peaks. Near-term technicals are positive and support further gains. Initial support and previous range top at 131.46, holds for now, with next supports laying at 131.25, 55DMA; 130.84, Fibonacci 61.8% of 129.28/131.80 and key near-term support at 130.63, consolidation range floor, also near 50% retracement, loss of which would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 131.80; 132.00; 132.41; 132.72

Sup: 131.46; 131.25; 131.00; 130.63

 

GBPUSD

 

Cable holds positive near-term tone, as fresh gains through 1.5600 barrier, posted new high at 1.5646, 76.4% retracement of 1.5716/1.5427 downleg. This marks the last barrier on the way towards 1.5716, 21/08 peak / Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 1.5100, above which to expose key barrier at 1.5751, 17/06 high. Positive near-term studies support the notion, with corrective dips being so far contained at 1.56 support. Next support levels lay at 1.5575/53, Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% of 1.5461/1.5646, with extension below, seen as a trigger for fresh bears.

Res: 1.5646; 1.5700; 1.5716; 1.5751

Sup: 1.5595; 1.5575; 1.5553; 1.5531

 

USDJPY

 

The pair maintains positive tone, as the price comes tick away from psychological barrier at 100 yen. Break here to resume larger rally from 96.80 higher low and expose barriers at 100.44 and 100.85. However, further hesitation at 100 barrier, cannot be ruled out, with immediate support at 99.50, 55DMA, ahead of 99.15/00 zone, below which to allow for deeper pullback.

Res: 100.00; 100.44; 100.85; 101.00

Sup: 99.50; 99.15; 99.00; 98.50

 

AUDUSD

 

The pair continues to trend higher on a  near-term recovery rally off 0.8890 double-bottom,  with fresh high being posted at 0.9187. The price penetrated into daily cloud, with near-term targets and key barriers at 0.9220/32, coming in focus. Positive technicals remain supportive, however, overbought conditions on lower timeframes, signal corrective pullback. Initial support lies at 0.9100, round figure support, ahead of previous high at 0.9068, also near 38.2% retracement of 0.8890/0.9187 upleg, where dips should be ideally contained, to keep immediate bulls in play.

Res: 0.9187; 0.9200; 0.9220; 0.9232

Sup: 0.9100; 0.9068; 0.9000; 0.8977

 

AUDNZD

 

The cross maintains positive near-term structure off 1.1433, 29/08 higher low, part of broader recovery from 1.1260 higher platform and rally from 1.1197 low. Fresh extension higher, broke above previous high at 1.1585 and psychological 1.1600 barrier and tested 1.1655, 50% retracement of 1.2096/1.1197 descend that signals near-term base. Corrective pullback was contained at initial support at 1.1585/70, former high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1433/1.1655 upleg / 55DMA, with hourly studies gaining traction and being supportive for renewed attempt at 1.1647, daily cloud top and 1.1655 peak, break of which to resume rally towards psychological 1.1700 barrier and 1.1753, 61.8% of 1.2096/1.1197 descend. Conversely, slide below 1.1578, would signal prolonged correction.

Res: 1.1621; 1.1655; 1.1700; 1.1734

Sup: 1.1591; 1.1579; 1.1544; 1.1500

 

XAUUSD

 

Spot Gold’s recovery rally off 1373 low ran out of steam at 1416 barrier, with subsequent pullback losing 1400 handle, on downside extension to 1380. Near-term studies maintain negative tone that sees increased risk of retesting 1373 support, with break lower to trigger fresh extension of corrective pullback from 1433 and open higher platform at 1353, also trendline support and Fibonacci 50% of 1272/1433 ascend, below which, bears would take full control. Alternative scenario requires regain of minimum 1416 barrier to shift near-term focus higher again.

Res: 1395; 1400; 1410; 1416

Sup: 1380; 1372; 1360; 1353

 

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