Daily Market Outlook for 04.09.2013

EURUSD

 

The Euro remains under pressure and extends fresh weakness below important 1.3200/1.3180 support zone. The price tested 200DMA at 1.3136, with psychological 1.3100 support, also 50% of 1.2754/1.3450, being in near-term focus. Negative near-term studies, along with daily indicators entering negative territory, see scope for further downside, with break below 1.3100, expected to open 1.3050, 16/07 low and 1.3020, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Previous supports at 1.3180/1.3200, now act as initial resistances, with the latter being reinforced by descending 20DMA. Further upside would face Fibonacci barriers at 1.3236 and 1.3266, 38.2% and 50% retracement of 1.3397/1.3136, ahead of 1.3300, round figure resistance and Fibonacci 61.8%, where stronger rallies should be capped.

Res: 1.3172; 1.3200; 1.3236; 1.3266

Sup: 1.3136; 1.3100; 1.3066; 1.3050

 

EURJPY

 

Near-term price action gets congested under Tuesday’s fresh recovery high at 131.46 and moves within 130.63/131.46 consolidative range. However, near-term studies remain positively aligned and keep the upside in focus, as the price found good support at 130.63, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 129.28/131.46 upleg and bounced towards the upper boundary of the range. Break higher to expose trendline resistance at 132.00 and recent peaks at 132.41 and 132.42, above which to open way towards key short-term barrier at 133.78, 22/05 high. Higher platform at 130.63, reinforced by 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, should keep the downside protected, to avoid fresh weakness towards 130.00 and 129.28, loss of which to revive near-term bears.

Res: 131.46; 132.00; 132.41; 132.72

Sup: 131.00; 130.63; 130.37; 130.00

 

GBPUSD

 

Cable trades in the near-term consolidative mode, after cracking psychological 1.5600 barrier on a spike to 1.5603. The second day closing above 200DMA, gives more credibility to the recovery rally from 1.5427, where pullback from 1.5716, 21/08 peak, found support. Positive tone prevails on near-term studies, with price action retracing so far 61.8% of 1.5716/1.5427 descend, keeps the upside in near-term focus. Sustained break above 1.5600 and clearance of the last hurdle at 1.5636, is required to confirm bulls for eventual push towards key 1.5700/16 barriers. Initial support lies at 1.5521, Tuesday’s low, ahead of 1.5500, 200DMA and higher lows at 1.5461/27, loss of which will be bearish.

Res: 1.5571; 1.5603; 1.5636; 1.5648

Sup: 1.5521; 1.5500; 1.5461; 1.5427

 

USDJPY

 

The pair remains steady and continues to trend higher, en-route towards psychological 100 barrier, with 99.85 seen so far. Positive near-term technicals support the action, with sustained break above 100 barrier, to signal completion of weekly bullish pennant and open next targets at 100.85 and 101.52. Near-term consolidation lows at 99.22/15, along with 99.00, offer initial support. Only reversal under 98.50, 29/08 high, would delay and signal stronger correction.

Res: 99.85; 100.00; 100.44; 100.85

Sup: 99.14; 99.00; 98.50; 98.27

 

AUDUSD

 

The pair remains well supported and extends near-term recovery rally off 0.8890 double-bottom, with 0.9100, psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9232/0.8890 barrier, being taken out. The price also cracked daily 55DMA, setting scope for final push through 0.9175, daily cloud base, towards key near-term barriers at 0.9220/32 double-top. Near-term studies are positive, however, overbought conditions require caution, as corrective pullback would precede fresh rally. Initial support lies at 0.9068, 26/08 previous high.

Res: 0.9152; 0.9188; 0.9200; 0.9220

Sup: 0.9100; 0.9068; 0.9000; 0.8977

 

AUDNZD

 

The cross maintains positive near-term structure off 1.1433, 29/08 higher low, part of broader recovery from 1.1260 higher platform and one-month rally from 1.1197 low. Fresh extension higher, broke above previous high at 1.1585 and psychological 1.1600 barrier and tested 1.1650, 50% retracement of 1.2096/1.1197 descend that signals near-term base. Corrective pullback on overbought near-term studies, faces initial support at 1.1585/70, former high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1433/1.1655 upleg, ahead of 1.1540 zone, 50% retracement. Stronger dips should be contained above 1.1500, to keep near-term positive structure intact for possible stronger recovery. The notion is supported by daily indicators entering positive territory and daily ADX showing bulls returning to play.

Res: 1.1655; 1.1700; 1.1734; 1.1747

Sup: 1.1585; 1.1540; 1.1500; 1.1485

 

XAUUSD

 

Spot Gold regained strength, as extension of near-term recovery from 1372 low, broke above 1400 barrier that capped price action during past few sessions. Freshly established positive tone on the lower timeframes studies, brings the upside back in focus, as recovery retraced nearly 76.4% of 1433/1372 pullback on rally to 1416 so far. Corrective easing on overbought hourly studies, should be ideally contained at/above 1400, now acting as key near-term support.

Res: 1416; 1430; 1433; 1440

Sup: 1400; 1392; 1384; 1372

 

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